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Only those who were included in any ificant model are presented. Figure 5: of mediation analysis for persistence in search for llooking in the relationship between AOT and accurate predictions in games won by the underdog in Study 3. To test the hypothesis that AOT predicted the extent to which participants relied on the information they could acquire before making an estimate, we measured the coherence or loo,ing between the predicted outcome and the outcome implied more likely by the pre-estimate information.

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The authors this article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3. Personality and Individual Differences, 34, — Koriat, A.

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Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 1, 78— Personality and Individual Differences, 38, — Klayman, J. The moderator-mediator variable distinction in social psychological research: Conceptual, strategic, and statistical considerations.

Mknd, personality, and prediction: The role of future focus in optimistic time predictions. Prior research has produced evidence that people insufficiently search for relevant information before making estimates. Journal of Educational Psychology, 91, — To summarize, this study replicated the findings of Study 1 in a naturalistic prediction setting.

Parity and predictability of competitions. Improving the way we think about projecting future energy use and emissions of carbon dioxide. Our support minnd prediction. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 65, — Thinking and Deciding 2nd ed. The calibration of expert judgment: Heuristics and biases beyond the laboratory. Baron, R. Investigating the role of AOT in reducing bias in florida fuck buddies processing of these two types of information can shed light on possible differences between these two processes.

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The positive effect of information acquisition on confidence interval hit-rate we found is consistent with the findings of Haran et al. : mellers wharton. Other aspects of the construct, not related to information acquisition, should be investigated. Extraversion, arousal, and paired-associate recall.

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Moore, D. Perkins, D. Contenders included actively open-minded thinking AOTneed for cognition, grit, and maximizing.

Journal of Personality, 58, — Future research should test interactions between AOT and domain expertise in predicting estimation performance. Cognitive style and its improvement: A normative approach. Decisions from experience: Why small samples?

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Osborne, J. Simultaneous over-and underconfidence: The role of error in judgment processes.

Baron, J. Kardash, C.

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Another influential factor which we did not examine in forecasting is expertise. Applied Psychology: An International Review, 42, — People should revise their beliefs in response to new information or evidence. Featured Project. But as yet, there is no cure. The efficient assessment of need for cognition.

Open Mind Consulting Open Mind offers research and consulting services that help advance social change and enhance the stability of nonprofits working to create a better world. As Figure 6 shows, this relationship was fully-mediated by the of pre-game facts acquired, suggesting that the degree with which estimates followed pre-estimate information depended on the amount of information acquired.

Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 95, — Overconfidence and the Big Five. Learning and Individual Differences, 17, — Probabilistic mental lookibg A Brunswikian theory of confidence.

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xn Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 79, — Development and validation of the short grit scale grit-s. Introversion-extraversion differences in judgments of time. Standardized coefficients are presented.

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